Thursday, June 23, 2011

Taylor vs. Tyler

Craig Buffoon -- I mean Button -- decided to re-draft the 2010 picks, and for some mind-bottling reason, he put Seguin ahead of Hall. His Blurbs seem to indicate that Seguin's strong playoff performance combined with Button's assessment that Hall needs a complimentary center are reasons for flip-flopping the two. First, let me just say I believe in Seguin's ability to continue to grow and some day become a top 6 forward in the NHL.

What I don't really understand is how anything that transpired last season would do anything to change anyone's mind, even from a pure 'I'm only judging them based on future potential' perspective.

Numbers after the jump:

Statistically there is a considerable gap between the two. Everything below for 5v5:

Hall: 10.3
Seguin: -6.5

CorsiRel Quality of Competition
Hall: 0.461
Seguin: -0.406

Hall: 1.78
Seguin: 1.44

Relative Plus/Minus (aka Rating)
Hall: -0.06
Seguin: -1.09

On-Ice Team Save Percentage
Hall: 0.899
Seguin: 0.945

Net Penalties drawn/60
Hall: 1.7
Seguin: 0.0

These are all rate statistics - meaning they ignore time on ice - so this should about cover the bet. In case you were wondering Seguin played about 794 EV minutes, and Hall about 980. Everything taken from behind the net.

Aside from the quality of teammates Hall played with (Eberle was superior to most of Seguins linemates statistically), Hall is clearly the superior EV player.

I like Seguin as a player. There is almost zero doubt in my mind he won't produce a far more consistent and defensively conscious game in his next season. A comparable player to him last season (by raw stats I'm saying) was Dominic Moore:
  • They scored at the same rate with Moore having better linemates
  • They both were considerably below even on relative plus minus
  • Both played 10-12 EV a game
  • Dominic Moore faced tougher opposition.

What was striking is that Hall is already close to top 3 forward just based on raw numbers. He'd have to score a bit more to cover that bet, but he was close already in his first season. A comparable guy (again raw stats) is a guy like Matt Moulson:
  • They scored at the same rate with about the same quality of linemate
  • They both about broke even on relative plus minus
  • Both played 14-15 EV a game
  • They both played about the same quality of opposition.

An interesting exercise to look at their current starting points and where they can go from here. Up, way up - and I mean for both of them.


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