Edmonton Oilers Postgame 55: We Have a Weiner

I imagine this is what a Dustin Penner off-day looks like

I contemplated several titles to properly capture my dissatisfaction at the ineptitude of the Oilers this afternoon, but quickly realized it wasn't going to be possible inside the confines of a single row of sensationalized lettering. I settled for something kitschy when thoughts of a 'The Toilet Bowl' headline picture left me a bit uneasy.

When you go up against a team that sports one of the worst goaltending tandems in the league (Elliot ranks 39th in the league for sv%), and the very worst goal differential, on home ice, well you expect the Oilers might be able to flex that powerful core that many expect to start emerging sometime soon. The kids are well acclimatized, the D and forward lines somewhat stable, and arguably the worst team comes-a-calling; I expected better from this Oilers team. I expect better.

The usual apologist fuckery applies, yes, they got closer to that coveted first place draft choice, and yes, if you are someone who salivates at the thought of moving Pennertration out of town for a couple of picks you are happy to see him at just about a dead-ringer pace for 30 on the year. Otherwise I was not very happy with anyone's game outside of maybe Hemmer and perhaps Vandermeer.

The ref's decided to interject in the games flow quite frequently, and to be honest it doesn't matter which way the sword is swinging, the Oilers still manage to hurt themselves. Case and point, the loss today: whether it was lost momentum on a goal-starved PP or the obvious game changer PK goal against, they both set the table for a rookie mistake finisher.

Adding to my frustration was that dynamic duo on the CBC mic's. I figure if we got to overtime the hyperbolic arc of bullshit being spun for Kovalev by Mark Lee would have reached truly epic proportions:

Mark Lee: And here's The Magnificent Wizard himself, Kovalev, with the puck, a sensational climax of a Hockey Playing God -- Kovalev cuts into the zone with such grace -- UNBELIEVEABLE! HE'S FLOATING IN THE AIR, WHAT MAGNIFICENCE, WHAT SHEER AND UTTER BEAUTY -- MY HEART IS GALLOPING IN MY CHEST, KEVIN, LIKE A GIRL WHO RIDES A MAJESTIC STALLION FOR THE FIRST TIME ON THE GLEN FIELDS DURING A LIGHT RAINFALL *cries*
Kevin Weekes: Absolutely, Mark, absolutely.

Every time that cotton-for-nuts ice sculpture touched the puck Mark Lee had to drop out some ludicrous adjective like 'Magnificent' or 'Wonderful'. Yea, his 26 points are really burning up the league. That's 5 million bucks of slacker Russian with 13 goals in 50 games, and his points per 60 of 1.28 is in line with Peter Regin, Jesse Winchester, and Nick Foligno. The only good thing is that his 35+ contract comes off the books after this year, unlike some other Russian who is making a touch less to suck a little more. Speaking of Khabibulin, he apparently set the post-lockout record for consecutive losses by a goaltender (14) with the .833 effort tonight (20 for 24).

Long story short, the Oilers bungled a lengthy 5v3 again, managed a meager output of 18 shots on a replacement level goaltender, turned it over a ton, and simply did not play with enough guts to deserve a different fate.

Individuals after the hop.

Edmonton Oilers Postgame 54: Zebras on Parade

I imagine this is what a Tim Horton's drive-through
is like at 2 A.M. on acid

On the right here is a zebra messing shit up. Unfortunately zebra's tend to do that every once and a while, and this culminated in the two 10-minute misconducts given out at the end of the game. According to Tencer: Theo Peckham says he said 4 words to earn the misconduct. Horcoff says the offical refused to explain the calls on Peckham and Cogliano.

Now I've never reffed anything in my life, but I know what I think of professionals not being accountable for how they perform. It's bush-league. If you want to make calls on the ice, be the big man and own up to your decisions - say why, and say it confidently. How do you think players are going to react when the opposing team scores during their sixth consecutive PP, when clearly calls have been missed the other way? Guys like that, who don't give any slack after more or less completely hosing down one team, are not good NHL referees. You need to understand there is a certain give and take in the league while delivering a fair and balanced assessment of the action. In other words, next time they dole out two ten-minute misconducts, I'd hope the offending player would be intimating that they have given the ref's mother the ol' german sausage in the smokehouse. Otherwise put the whistles away, wussies - this isn't ringette.

Now with that off my chest (junk, garbage referees) I turn to the actual game. It was mostly a life-choked affair, the Oilers basically buoyed by the occasional burst of crowd noise and the odd bit of momentum from a bit of Hall dash or Paajarvi swagger or an Omarkian reverse-rag-doll. Chicago looked like a team that was in the playoff race, and desperately needed the two points.  By the end of the game the Oilers managed to turn it on and brought the shot total close, 24-26, but truly it was way too late, and Eberle's goal was nothing but some shuffling statistics and an already fading memory.

There were a couple of shifts (coinciding with stalled momentum due to Oilers killing penalties) where the Hawks obliterated the power on power matchup that I have been lamenting about. You'd think that a line with Horc, Hemmer, and Penner could at least give as good as they were getting, but for the first half of the game they were getting steam-rolled by Toews and Sharp. They were sutured up in their own zone, and couldn't even consistently clear the puck. In my opinion the big three are playing like the season is lost. You can see it in their compete level, it is a notch below anybody who is on a team desperate for points. Regardless of Penner producing some goals recently, this has been a brutal stretch for Hemsky and Horcoff especially. Horcoff is making a lot of fat dollars but when is the last time you saw him a) bring the puck over the opposing blue line, b) make a good pass in the offensive zone, or c) record a scoring chance? I honestly can't remember.

One other thing I noticed quite distinctly was the lack of smash-and-grab on the Oilers side tonight. There was very little physical engagement on the ice, and like I've pointed out a half-dozen times, the Oilers seem to go best when they get mad, get steamed, want blood. It might be more pronounced on a young team, when emotional highs can supercharge quads to give (the impossible) 110%. I think subconsciously all of the Oilers fans who are crying out for more team toughness have been conditioned to improved outcomes due to fisticuffs and in-game body-slams. That's why guys like Zorg are infintely more valuable than the JFJ's. Getting his furry yap running, and engaging the opposing middleweight in a polish hug-dance at least got some of the emotions up on the ice. I need to ask, who is going to be that guy in the forward ranks? Do we have one? Landeskog?

I thought the rookies played OK tonight: Dubnyk made a couple of great saves early to keep the game well in control, and after the Oilers settled down (and weren't killing penalties), the HOPE group did it's best to attempt to wrest the two-point meal away from the Hawk's talons. Each rook held the spotlight for a couple good chances in the game, and they remain the primary reason to tune into another broadcast of the Oilers getting spanked by a lineup of good or bad teams.

Individuals after the hop.

The Falling Star of Zach Bogosian

In this picture, Bogosian has Edmonton on his mind

Normally I wouldn't address rumours regarding player swaps, but when the Prince of Puns speaks, I have no choice but to step into the fray.

Here's what Principe said:

Lots of talk about Zach Bogosian to Edm and last night two scouts from Atlanta drove to Nashville, in a mild snowstorm, to watch the game

For a guy who generally tows the company line, for him to flat out drop a juicy rumour at least means something along this lines has probably been discussed. This started a thread on HFBoards that extrapolated on the offer to indicate it was likely Penner or Hemsky moving the other way to an offensively challenged Atlanta. From a pure performance perspective, this trade makes sense: Byfuglien and Enstrom are generating a ton from the back end, and there is no question one of Penner or Hemsky could impact their offence, perhaps enough to secure a playoff spot. The vast majority of the posters were all for it from Edmonton's perspective, but I tend to take a more cautious approach. My first impression was HELL YEA considering a chance to get a 3rd OA pick who had a sparkling rookie season before his leg break seemed like a great opportunity. Of course, the Gods of Corsi demanded I wear the Sacrificial Robes, climb to the top of Mount Vesuvius and swear undying fealty before such a transaction could take place. So I did:

Zach Bogosian

Defense
Born Jul 15 1990 -- Massena, NY
Height 6.02 -- Weight 197 -- Shoots R

Selected by Atlanta Thrashers round 1 #3 overall 2008 NHL Entry Draft

			Regular Season					Playoffs
Season	Team	Lge	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM
2006-07	Peterborough Petes	OHL	67	7	26	33	63	--	--	--	--	--
2007-08	Peterborough Petes	OHL	60	11	50	61	72	5	0	3	3	8
2008-09	Atlanta Thrashers	NHL	47	9	10	19	47	--	--	--	--	--
2008-09	Chicago Wolves	AHL	5	1	0	1	0	--	--	--	--	--
2009-10	Atlanta Thrashers	NHL	81	10	13	23	61	--	--	--	--	--
2010-11	Atlanta Thrashers	NHL	45	4	7	11	21
	NHL Totals		173	23	30	53	129

STAT	VALUE	RANKING (of 7)
TOI/60	17.37	3rd
Corsi Rel QoC	0.575	1st
Corsi Rel QoT	-1.422	5th
G/60	0.23	3rd
P/60	0.54	5th
+-ON/60	-1.15	6th
Corsi On	-15.66	6th
Corsi Off	-5.33	1st
Corsi Rel	-10.3	6th
Sh%	6.55	5th
Sv%	922	3rd
Ozone%	43.5	6th

Analysis after the hop.

Edmonton Oilers Postgame 53: Tower of Power

The above is Devan Dubnyk if he was turned into a medieval painting of Babel. He can be a cloud-scraping, marvel of a man when the opponent isn't handed gimme goals and flagrant rebounds from misplayed pucks. On a night where the Oilers clearly entered a visitor rink with little opening pep, his strong play was the lifeline the Oilers needed after dropping something like 20 of the last 24. The interesting thing about Dubnyk's night was my impression that his effort tonight was no better or worse than what he has been regularly delivering for the Edmonton Oilers. This is probably the best sign for Dubnyk: he can get shutouts without playing the best hockey of his career, something that seemed to be a little more necessary for a guy like Deslauriers (who I continue to have a soft spot for).

Two other guys in particular stood out to me in the victory, playing almost carbon copy games: Teddy Peckman and Jimmy "Bones" Vandermeer.

Theo played 23 minutes tonight (I imagine close to a season high), including over 5 on the PK which thwarted all of the Preds feeble attempts. Peckham also He-Man slammed Spaling to the ice with a few minutes left in the game to put a exclamation point on the postgame headline. Spaling made a kind of squishy-popping noise when his body pancaked into the ice, his flippers dangling from violence-shocked fingers - it was like an icecream van running into a cement truck.

Vandermeer played one of his best games as an Edmonton Oiler, going +2 with an apple (initially credited with the goal by eventually given to Eberle). He was giving stiff-arm jolts all over the ice (or as I like to say fisting dudes), I probably counted a half dozen forearm shivers that nuked unsuspecting Predator players. Aside from a brutal third period giveaway, he was full-marks for delivering a board-rattling, tongue-biting performance.

This was of course a product of the increased ice time the entire D core played when Gilbert missed the entire third period. The Sportsnet replay showed Gagner's knee slam into the top of a prone Gilbert's helmet. If I had to speculate on an injury, I would say minor concussion, but it's probably just as likely it was a precautionary thing. Let's hope so, as the last thing we need is our last big minutes Dman to go down with a concussion. That is unless you think the Oilers need help in securing the first overall draft pick.

edit: Joanne Ireland just confirmed it was a precautionary thing, and he is expected to have no lingering problems.

In terms of the offence up front, I think the Omark/Gagner/PRV line did a great job in generating momentum in the game - they were essentially the first positive shift in the entire game for the Oilers, and they really worked hard in both ends of the ice. I could be wrong, but tonight I saw as much tenacity with Omark on the wrong side of the puck tonight as we were used to seeing with him in the opponents zone. He's never going to be an elite defensive player (how many 5'9 guys have ever won the Selke? A lot of 5'11 guys it looks like) but if he sinks his bulldogs jaws into the defensive side of the game I figure he can at least saw it off with middling opposition. To be honest, I think he really needs to be more tenacious defensively if he wants to secure a top 6 role in the future. A good step tonight, as I'm sure the coaching staff has been preaching this exact message to him.

If the Gagner line provided the spark, the Cogliano line started the fire burning. The line finished with 2 goals and three apples, and a combined +6 with 8 shots. Eberle made a couple of beauty plays including a backhand dangle that led to a post and a near goal on the ricochet. His tip goal was classic Eberle, great hands in the right spot. Hall only had one shot, but he looked confident carrying the puck and seemed to defer more to his linemates in this game. Cogliano had been spotty offensively most of the season but he certainly has made a run at salvaging a season that was in danger of being a total disaster. Good for him, as earlier in the season I had mentally purchased him a one-way ticket to wherever-the-fuck after his generally dismal first half.

Maybe the best news in all of this is even with the Oilers win we are still dead last; the NYI's, NJD's, and TML's had done enough winning recently to allow us exactly a one point cushion to remain in the basement after a win. Let's hope this trend continues so that we can win without an ounce of guilt.

Edmonton Oilers Postgame 52: F**k

Yo, I've got a book on my head -- and the Oilers suck

As an Oilers fan, most of us have steeled ourselves from such a humiliating collapse by virtue of any loss brings us closer to a moment when our favorite big-boned scout walks up to a microphone and makes another can't-miss-selection in the 2012 draft (with our first overall pick, we select Adam Larsson). Even then, bullshit like the end of tonight's game will still sting any fan. We managed to blow a lead with something like 6 minutes left in the third, and then promptly cough up the winner to Huselius, a guy for which I basically have zero respect as a complete hockey player. To add insult to injury, our Heavy Lifter Squad, Horcoff, Hemsky, and DTrain, were the primary culprits on the CBJ go-ahead goal. You just can't give up a clean two on one with 4 minutes left in a tie game. I think even the local wino road hockey league would have more sense then that.

I'm an Oilers fan who has been tempered in the glorious white-hot fires of ineptitude that only 5 losing seasons could produce. But even my stamina for suck is starting to wane. How many more losses can a fan absorb? What depths of utter insanity are we willing to plumb with our eyes until we are quoting Macbeth lines while painting the walls in arterial blood-spray? I will have to admit I eyed my cheese grater when the Oilers shagged the dog on the 2 minute 5v3. Maybe you could try shooting the puck a little, eh? Pretty sure that's how the little black cake gets your scoring point in the hockey goal.

People that think last place overall is a forgone conclusion, well normally I'd say 'you crazy, Jimmy McCrackins', but the Oilers seem to have embraced the suck. At this point if it takes someone getting bottom raped by Strudwick in between periods to generate a win, the Oilers should look into it. I mean, the Oilers are going to lose a bunch more games this year, right? But we need SOMETHING to go right. Some brightness so we don't roll into next season and have a bunch of kids that look like they've been through the ass-end of Hockey-Vietnam. NYI and NJD have given us a little breathing room to actually win some games, and as a fan it would be nice to just see one blow-the-oppositions-frilly-panties-off game. When was the last time we saw the Oilers generate one of those? November?

The game itself was alright. The action was decent, and Khabibulin was sharp in the opening to allow the Oilers normally dormant offence to get in gear and pump a few past Steve "Jim Carey" Mason. After that it was the predictable Oilers shit-show we've all come to know and love: get bent over on special teams, and make 'lets-drill-holes-in-our-forehead' dumb mental errors that lead to scoring chances that every team from Albuquerque to Zimbabwe could cash on. I like the fact that Renney has finally started using 4 forwards on the PP (see my prediction this was going down here, 4th paragraph). I would love to see some statistical analysis that showed that power plays with four forwards scored more, but even if there is no proof just the fact that we are getting a different look might pay dividends when the Oilers score their next power-play goal in 2013. I'm not sure I loved Omark on the point since he brings no threat of shooting. I think it might be interesting to run Hallsie up high similar to TBay's monster PP has Stamkos on the left side of an umbrella formation.

PRV continued his solid play of late, cashing two gimmes from seeing eye passes by the Linus "Bulldog" Omark, and in some strange trickery of the eye he seemingly has grown two inches on the ice. I'm certain he was listed at 6'1 in the draft but now every place I check has him listed at 6'3. He's still young enough to experience a little growth, but I really feel like he's had a spurt here. Is it possible that subconsciously my mind could interpret the subtle differences of a couple pixels on a TV and determine a growth spurt has taken place? Maybe he's just playing bigger these days.

I can say one thing without a doubt. This will be Tambellini's last losing season. Yea, I think you get my drift.

Edmonton Oilers Postgame 51: Tough Luck

This is what 4 wins in the last 23 games looks like

As the saying goes, you make your own luck. Poker is a perfect example of this, as anyone who plays will know. Given an individual hand (or play in hockey), just about anything can happen that will lead to ultimate glory, or gory ruin. What all the good players instinctively understand is that you cannot always get the coin flips and die rolls and free throws to go your way, no matter how good you are. What separates the good poker player from the bad, and the good hockey teams from the bad is the concept of making your own luck.

My interpretation is that means placing yourself in favourable positions by control of your own actions so that even though you lose some of the coin flips, you often win in the long run as good and bad luck evens out but good and bad positions do not. This is something that is more or less represented by shots on goal in hockey, and this is something that the Oilers have been doing a lot better recently: out-shooting opponents.

Take the game tonight against the Blues, for example. It was a game that the Oilers had the majority of the puck possession, out-shot (32-26) and out-chanced the Blues, yet lost by 2. In fact, the Oilers have outshot 6 of their last 8 opponents, and tied another in shots. This is a team that is starting to drive 5v5 offence more consistently than they have at any time during the whole season. Of course outshooting your opponent is a lot like being a good poker player. All it does is put you in a good position to win. It doesn't mean that the bounces will go your way. In the Oilers case, in that same stretch of having as many or more shots as their opponent 7 times, they have lost 7 times.

I think in general the Oilers played a decent game against St. Louis. They carried most of the play 5v5, and had predictably useless special teams efforts. There was plenty of solid, gritty play, and for a desperate team like St. Louis to look equal (or worse) to the NHL bottom dwelling Oilers is a testament to the Oilers recent improvements or a grim epitaph for the St Louis season. Can you imagine a team like St. Louis winning a Stanley Cup this season? In what strange galaxy could that ever happen? They should probably worry about all of that season ticket money they will have to give back if they miss the playoffs (some marketing genius is going to get fired - out of a cannon).

If you are the poker player, or the Oilers, you cannot get frustrated. Everybody swallows a spider while sleeping once and a while (or insert your own non-traditional 'everyone has bad luck sometimes' analogy). Control what you can control, and realistically the Oilers should start winning a few games here and there. Just as an aside, you will notice that of the top ten teams in the league, 8 of them are outshooters (only Dallas, 8th, and the Rangers, 10th, do not outshoot their opponents). On the other side of the spectrum, 4 of the bottom 5 teams and 6 of the bottom 10 teams get outshot on average.

Of course most of the walking bean-counters already knew that, but the point is the Oilers keep on playing like this and we might make the race for dead last a little more interesting.

Thoughts on individuals after the hop.

Evaluating HOPE: Defence

So the Oilers lost another game where they out shot their opponent, and played well enough to deserve perhaps a different fate. Regardless, I don't know how many ways I can say 'losing is good and bad' so instead of focusing on the postgame, I decided to take a statistical look at the defence of our four promising forwards. I am of course referring to Hall, Omark, Paajarvi, and Eberle.

And yes, I stole this from the previous HOPE article.

Defending Rates

There are a couple ways you can break a forwards defence down, but considering the discrepancies in total amounts of games, I will use rate statistics (so get out your secret decoder rings kiddies).

The first chart contains the even strength defence rates, in other words, based on ice time (TOI/60) how many goals against they give up (GAON/60), their plus/minus per 60 minutes of ice (+-ON/60), their offence zone start rates (Ozone%), their quality of competition (Qcomp), along with the team save percentage (Sv%), and their rank on the team (among forwards with at least 10 games):

Name	TOI/60	GAON/60	Rank	+-ON/60	Rank	Ozone%	Qcomp	Rank	Sv%
HALL	15.29	3.11	11th	-0.82	11th	52.1	0.066	1st	899
OMARK	12.19	3.69	15th	-1.72	16th	58.5	-0.011	11th	860
PAAJARVI	13.15	2.58	7th	-0.10	6th	52.7	0.013	8th	918
EBERLE	14.16	3.18	12th	-0.71	10th	48.2	0.065	2nd	901

Some interesting stuff here:

• Hall and Eberle are facing the toughest competition (already covered in the previous article), and are doing OK considering.
• Paajarvii's playing the best defence of the four based on pure numbers. He is facing third liners mostly, so it's possible we would see the same defensive rates for Hall and Eberle were their assignments switched.
• Omark's defensive numbers are awful. Dead last in every category. On the entire team, only Strudwick and Chorney have a worse +-ON/60. He is absolutely bleeding goals against at 5v5, so perhaps the goaltending behind him isn't helping much. Alternatively he's such a liability that he's putting the goaltender into bad situations; in such a small sample size this is certainly possible. Let's not forget he was second worst +/- on his team even while scoring the second most goals for Dynamo last season.
• Eberle has some of the tougher zone starts on the team - not really sure why there is such a discrepancy between him and Hall, except that perhaps since Eberle has been out Hall has been perhaps getting easier zone starts. All things considered Eberle has been a beastly player 5v5.
• Among forwards who play at least 10 minutes per game, Paajarvi is ranked third in GAON/60 and +-ON/60 (moving past scrubs like Fraser, JFJ, Stortini, and Smak). Ahead is only Horcoff and Reddox. Like I've said before, he has the makings of a Selke type forward.
• Linus Omark? WTF? 

Penalty kill after the hop and a quick revisit of the advanced stats.